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Q2 2025 TD COWEN/AFS Freight Index Forecast

You’ve long used data for forecasting, budgeting and other strategic initiatives. But the volume of data is skyrocketing and one of the great modern business challenges is knowing what data matters and what to dismiss.

Each quarter, AFS collaborates with TD Cowen, a leading full-service investment bank, to bring you current, highly relevant data and insights that matter to your business.

The latest TD Cowen/AFS Freight Index pulled up on a desktop computer

Freight index forecast key takeaways for Q2 2025

  • Truckload rates will bounce along the bottom for a ninth straight quarter, as overall demand remains low and a sustained shift toward shorter-distance hauls drives down cost per shipment.

  • LTL rates keep showing exceptional resilience despite limited demand, as carriers focus on profitable lanes, contractual relationships and reliable freight, rather than chasing volume with pricing concessions. 

  • Parcel pricing updates are coming fast and furious, as UPS and FedEx seek to defend their slice of a soft market and shift away from the heavy discounting of the past year and a half.

Download the Full Q2:2025 TD Cowen/AFS Freight Index

What is the freight index?

The TD Cowen/AFS Freight Index offers a unique and comprehensive view of both past market performance and rate forecasts for the immediate future quarter, for full truckload shipping, less-than-truckload shipping and parcel shipping, both express and ground.

Massive client historical data and current macro and microeconomic factors are carefully evaluated and selected, with their impact built into our predictive models.