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Q4 2025 Freight Index Forecast

You’ve long used data for forecasting, budgeting and other strategic initiatives. But the volume of data is skyrocketing and one of the great modern business challenges is knowing what data matters and what to dismiss.

Each quarter, AFS collaborates with TD Cowen, a leading full-service investment bank, to bring you current, highly relevant data and insights that matter to your business.

Q4 2025 TD Cowen/ AFS Freight Index report slide pulled up on a desktop

Freight index forecast key takeaways for Q4 2025

  • Parcel carriers reap the benefits of their own pricing actions, as the cumulative effects of rate changes, fuel and other surcharges keep prices elevated.

  • LTL pricing shows continued resilience despite economic headwinds, as carriers rely on lessons learned from previous downward freight cycles to prioritize profitability and network efficiency. 

  • Truckload rates will remain at or near the bottom for yet another quarter, as longstanding headwinds keep rates suppressed despite some encouraging economic signals.

Download the Full Q4:2025 TD Cowen/AFS Freight Index

What is the freight index?

The TD Cowen/AFS Freight Index offers a unique and comprehensive view of both past market performance and rate forecasts for the immediate future quarter, for full truckload shipping, less-than-truckload shipping and parcel shipping, both express and ground.

Massive client historical data and current macro and microeconomic factors are carefully evaluated and selected, with their impact built into our predictive models.